Pick 'Em Corner - The Professor's Week 1 Smart Money Picks

My name is The Professor. Welcome to The Professor's Smart Money Picks 101, a crucial part of the curriculum known as Pick 'Em Corner. I've been handicapping college football games for decades now and would like you to know that I am a two-time Pick 'Em Corner Big Ten Regular Season Handicapping Champion (2008, 2009). Pay no mind to my predictions for games outside the Big Ten regular season.

The Professor is excited for the new Pick ‘Em Corner with various panelists in charge with selecting games from week to week. Good luck to my fellow panelists in attempting to choose games in an effort to stump The Professor. It’s a futile effort, but good luck nonetheless.

For those of you not familiar with The Professor and my process for handicapping college football games, I've included a brief syllabus:

1. The Professor is proud to return as the presenter of The Professor's Service Academy Game of the Week (SAGoW), brought to you by Armed Forces Network.

2. The Professor ALWAYS chooses the service academy squad in the SAGoW, no matter the matchup or spread.

3. The Professor will weekly provide you with a prediction on which to place the bulk of your bankroll. This prediction will be known as The Professor's Statistically-Proven Lock of the Week, brought to you by National American University.

4. The Professor will do his darndest to avoid picking Wisconsin and Iowa during the season, but ridiculous betting lines may prevent him from doing so from time to time.

5. The Professor uses a mathematical process he created to decide games involving Illinois. The Ron Zook Postulate states that any game involving noted waterskiing head coach Ron Zook should be picked in favor of the Fighting Illini's opponent when the spread seems reasonable if it involved any other coach. The related Tim Brewster Theorem was retired on Oct. 16, 2010.

6. From time to time, The Professor will sponsor the Does Anybody Outside the Locales of the Two Teams Involved Actually Care About This Game? Game, brought to you by RO*TEL.

7. The Professor's colleagues in the Pick 'Em Corner curriculum include, but are not limited to, The Host, Steve Stellar, The Cornerman, KCKCKCK, The Veteran, Miss Money, autoMATTic, Strickly Cash, Money Traen, C-Noth, Lockrem's Locks, Foreman’s Forecast, Special G and Vose. Do not trust your money to them and their picks.

8. The Professor will use Mr. Heavyfoot (http://mrheavyfoot.blogspot.com) as the homepage for The Professor's Smart Money Picks of the Week. Given enough time and/or the hiring of a quality TA, Mr. Heavyfoot will host the Pick 'Em Corner weekly picks and standings.

9. The Professor's Smart Money Picks will be distinguished in bold (* denotes home team).

Without further ado, sit up straight, sharpen your pencils and enjoy the lecture, for these are The Professor's Smart Money Picks, brought to you by the City of Chanhassen.


*Wisconsin -35 UNLV Thursday game
As noted above, The Professor does everything in his power to not choose Wisconsin in his weekly picks when the point spread allows. This is one such point spread. Of course the Badgers are going to win and win big, but with a new QB at the helm, it will take Wisconsin some time to get going in this tilt. I have absolutely no delusions that the Rebs will be able to hang with Wisco, but 35 points are just too many.

*Ohio State -34 Akron
A little known, but useful tool in deciding games involving Akron is the Tom Wistrcill Hypothesis. Wistrcill, as most of the Pick ‘Em Corner panel is aware, is a former Minnesota assistant AD and current AD at Akron. The Tom Wistrcill Hypothesis states that, in games involving Akron with point spreads of 30 points or more, go with the Zips. It’s a working hypothesis, but it’s enough for me in this game. Akron is a plucky little team with an adorable kangaroo mascot, while the Buckeyes are talented as always, but a team full of question marks after a turbulent offseason. Methinks 34 points is just a tad too much for an OSU squad with a new coach and QB. Go Zips.

*Boston College -3 Northwestern
Dan Persa’s limp is a limp, not a pimp walk. ‘‘Your limp could be somebody else’s pimp walk,’’ Wildcats coach Pat Fitzgerald said of his QB’s injury concerns. This is the same coach that said Tim Brewster’s 2010 Gophers were “one of the best-coached teams in the country.” Clearly, Fitzgerald’s observational skills are lacking. Until he proves me wrong, I shall hereby be picking against the ‘Cats in 2011. Sorry, KCKCKCK

*Penn State -37 Indiana State
Last season, in Pick ‘Em Corner games involving point spreads of 34 points or more, the favorite was 7-2. So why, pray tell, is The Professor going with the underdogs in all these big-spread games? Easy. Four of those seven favorites last season were Boise State. The others: Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon. The 2011 offenses of Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa (coming up next) aren’t anywhere near the caliber of the 2010 offenses of the Broncos, Tide, Buckeyes and Ducks.

*Iowa -40 Tennessee Tech
See Penn State-Indiana State. Also, The Professor does everything in his power to not choose Iowa in his weekly picks when the point spread allows. This is one such point spread.

*Purdue -18.5 Middle Tennessee
Amateur Pick ‘Em Corner panelists like Miss Money or Lockrem’s Locks will look at an 18.5 point spread between a Big Ten team and a school with a directional name and immediately pick the Boilers. Folks, The Professor is not an amateur prognosticator. You can’t spell Professor without ‘pro.’ Middle Tennessee State is a decent program in the Sun Belt looking for a signature win, while all Purdue (aka Torn ACL U) has going for itself right now is Danny Hope’s lipsweater. When you’re using something called Caleb TerBush as your starting QB and you’re pinning your hopes on the paper knees of RB Ralph Bolden, you’re in trouble. In fact … DO YOU HEAR THAT SOUND? EEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRR-PLUNK! EEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRR-PLUNK! EEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRR-PLUNK! It's The Professor's Statistically-Proven Lock of the Week, brought to you by National American University!

*Alabama -36.5 Kent State
Last season, in Pick ‘Em Corner games involving point spreads of 34 points or more, the favorite was 7-2. Pay no mind to me ignoring that stat in the above games. Oh, and ROLL! TIDE! TURKEY!

*USC -21 Minnesota
The Professor is drunk on Jerry Kill Kool-Aid (tastes like vinegar mixed with sweet tea!), so take this pick as you’d like, but I’m a believer in what Kill is doing at Minnesota. Do I believe, like ESPN.com’s Pat Forde that the Gophers will pull the upset? No, not for one second. But I do believe the lack of film on a Jerry Kill-coached Minnesota team will help immensely against USC. The Trojan coaching staff has been watching Northern Illinois video to get a sense of what they might see on Saturday, but none of that video will include Marqueis Gray, Da’Jon McKnight or Eric Lair. USC will out-talent Minnesota at pretty much every position, but they will not out-coach the Gophers like they did last year. The Trojans win this one, but it won’t be easy.

*Notre Dame -10 South Florida
It's time for The Professor's weekly lecture on the concept of schadenfreude, defined as "satisfaction or pleasure felt at someone else's misfortune." Nothing explains The Professor's feelings about schools like Wisconsin, Iowa and Notre Dame better then schadenfreude. In that vein, I would like to introduce The Professor’s Schadenfreude Game of the Week, presented by Gasthof Zur Gemutlichkeit.

*Illinois -20.5 Arkansas State
The Ron Zook Postulate in full effect here. As a reminder: The Ron Zook Postulate states that any game involving noted waterskiing head coach Ron Zook should be picked in favor of the Fighting Illini's opponent when the spread seems reasonable if it involved any other coach.

*Nebraska -36 Chattanooga
See Alabama-Kent State.

*Michigan -14 Western Michigan
It may take Denard Robinson some time to get going in the new offense, but Michigan is easily two TDs better than the Broncos. And now, Pure Michigan:


*Indiana -6.5 Ball State (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind.)
[crickets]



Boise State -3.5 Georgia (Georgia Dome- Atlanta, Ga.)
For some reason, The Professor loves the Broncos. Last season, The Professor went 7-2 in games involving Boise State, picking the Smurf Turfers in every contest. That’s not changing here. Plus, it’s another chance for the schadenfreude angle to play out as it would be awesome to see a team from freakin’ Idaho beat up on a squad from the big, bad SEC.

Oregon -1 LSU (Cowboy Stadium – Dallas, Texas)
If this game was in Baton Rouge, I might pick the Tigers, but the potent Duck offense on artificial turf of Cowboy Stadium, coupled with the loss of LSU’s QB and top WR spell a win for Oregon. Quack! Quack! Quack! Quack! Quack! Quack!


*Hawai’i -7 Colorado
It's the Does Anybody Outside the Locales of the Two Teams Involved Actually Care About This Game? Game, brought to you by RO*TEL. I dunno. Go Rainbow Warriors. I guess. Oh, and since 2007, Colorado has lost 18 straight road games. Here’s hoping they make it 19 by a TD or more.

Miami -5.5 *Maryland Monday game
Without prostitutes, yacht parties, booze, cash handouts and bounties, how can the ‘Canes be expected to be motivated to play this season? Go Terps.

BYU -3 *Ole Miss
We end Week 1 with a thud. Nice work as always, Host. Knowing nothing about either of these teams, I’ll use the coaches’ names as a way to pick a winner. Hmmm. While Bronco Mendenhall is an awesome name and very football-like, there are few names in college football more fun to say than Houston Nutt. Try it. Houston Nutt. Houston Nutt. Houston Nutt.

Finally, WHERE IS THE SERVICE ACADEMY GAME OF THE WEEK?!?! In lieu of The Host not including The Professor's Service Academy Game of the Week (SAGoW), brought to you by Armed Forces Network, I give you my picks for all games involving service academies:

*Northern Illinois -10.5 Army
On, brave old Army team!

*Navy -8 Delaware
Anchors aweigh!

*Air Force -33.5. South Dakota
Off we go, into the wild blue yonder!

Johns Hopkins -8.5 *Merchant Marine
We're moving down the field to victory
Men of the Grey and Blue!

Bye week: Coast Guard Academy.

Thus concludes The Professor's Smart Money Picks, brought to you by The City of Chanhassen.