Pick 'Em Corner - The Professor's Week 1 Smart Money Picks

My name is The Professor. Welcome to The Professor's Smart Money Picks 101, a crucial part of the curriculum known as Pick 'em Corner. I've been handicapping college football games for decades now and would like you to know that I am a three-time Pick 'Em Corner Regular Season Handicapping Champion (2008, 2009, 2012). Pay no mind to my predictions for games outside the regular season.

For those of you not familiar with The Professor and my process for handicapping college football games, I've included a brief syllabus:

1. The Professor is proud to return as the presenter of The Professor's Service Academy Game of the Week (SAGoW), brought to you by Armed Forces Network.

2. The Professor ALWAYS chooses the service academy squad in the SAGoW, no matter the matchup or spread.

3. The Professor will provide you with a weekly prediction on which to place the bulk of your bankroll. This prediction will be known as The Professor's Statistically-Proven Lock of the Week, brought to you by National American University.

4. The Professor will do his darndest to avoid picking Wisconsin and Iowa during the season, but ridiculous betting lines may prevent him from doing so from time to time.

5. Gone is the Ron Zook Postulate and the Tim Brewster Theorem. They have been replaced by the Tim Beckman Axiom. Established for the 2013 season, the axiom states that any game involving Illinois head coach Tim Beckman should be picked in favor of Chief Illiniwek’s opponent when the spread seems reasonable if it involved any other coach.

6. The Professor mockingly provides the Does Anybody Outside the Locales of the Two Teams Involved Actually Care About This Game? Game, brought to you by RO*TEL. No analysis will be given for a game that pretty much nobody will ever pay attention to.

7. In 2011, The Professor unveiled The Professor’s Schadenfreude Game of the Week, presented by Gasthof Zur Gemutlichkeit. This game prediction will include The Professor’s weekly lecture on the concept of Schadenfreude.

8. The Professor's colleagues in the Pick 'em Corner curriculum include, but are not limited to, The Host, Steve Stellar, The Cornerman, KCKCKCK, The Veteran, Mrs. Money, Mr. Money, Strickly Cash, Money Traen, C-Noth, Lockrem's Locks, Foreman’s Forecast, Special G, Wick to Click, the Line Adjuster, Moneyline Maus and Larry. Do not trust your money to them and their picks.

9. The Professor will use Mr. Heavyfoot (http://mrheavyfoot.blogspot.com) as the homepage for The Professor's Smart Money Picks of the Week. Given enough time and/or the hiring of a quality TA, Mr. Heavyfoot will host the Pick 'em Corner weekly picks and standings.

10. The Professor's Smart Money Picks will be distinguished in bold (CAPS denotes home team).

Without further ado, sit up straight, sharpen your pencils and enjoy the lecture, for these are The Professor's Smart Money Picks, brought to you by The City of Chanhassen.

INDIANA –35.5 Indiana State

The Professor cannot in good conscience start the season by picking Indiana to win a game by 36 points. That's ludicrous. IU edged the Sycamores 24-17 last season; Hoosier QB Tre Robinson is questionable at worst/rusty at best; ISU returns its top two offensive threats; and INDIANA SHOULD NEVER BE FAVORED TO WIN A GAME BY 35.5 POINTS. Also, those chrome and red candystriper helmets Indiana unveiled in the offseason is reason enough to pick against the Hooisers all season long (note: I probably won't pick against IU all season, but reserve the right to use those gawdawful helmets as reason to do so on a weekly basis).

MINNESOTA -14 UNLV

I'm taking my oldest son, Special K, to this game and he's fully on board with The Professor as a dyed-in-the-wool Gopher fan. What that means is he's set up for a lifetime of disappointment and heartache. But not Thursday night. Listen, UNLV is bad, really bad. Minnesota, meanwhile looks to be on the right side of mediocre and trending upward. When a slightly better than mediocre team meets a piss-poor team, 14 points is a given. Get used to getting let down, Special K. But not this week. Save it for week 4. Sigh.

SOUTH CAROLINA -12 North Carolina

There's not a doubt in The Professor's mind that South Carolina wins this game, but the Tarheels are sneaky. The Gamecocks return only five defensive starters, so even with Clowney, UNC will be able to move the ball. I've never trusted Spurrier's handling of his offense and QB(s), so I say North Carolina keeps this one close.

MICHIGAN STATE -27.5 Western Michigan

Sparty hasn't been able to pick a starter, backup, third string or fourth string quarterback this far into fall camp, so even though Michigan State is rightly favored in a big way, I don't have faith that the offense will be able to do anything consistently against the Broncos. Plus, I soured on MSU last season after repeatedly thinking they were going to figure it out. They never really did and I don't think the offseason made any difference for them.

NOTRE DAME -30 Temple

Schadenfreude pick here, so buyer beware. I'm still laughing from the enormous dump Notre Dame took in the BCS title game in January, so you know how I feel about the Fighting Irish. Plus, OWLS! 

OKLAHOMA STATE -12.5 Mississippi State (at Houston, Texas)

Mississippi State once employed Tim Brewster. Rationale for pick ... complete.

UVA –Pick (-0) - BYU

It's time for the season's first  Does Anybody Outside the Locales of the Two Teams Involved Actually Care About This Game? Game, brought to you by RO*TEL. I know why Steve Stellar included this game - it's a pick 'em - but it's Virginia vs. BYU. Yawn.

Alabama -19 Virginia Tech (at Atlanta, Ga.)

The Professor had a winning record in Roll! Tide! Turkey! Games last season, so there's no reason to believe 2013 will be any different.

Georgia -2 Clemson

Ever had the Tajh Boyd Chicken Quesadillas? They're delicious and against NCAA rules!

LSU -4 TCU (at Arlington, Texas)

I’ll take the team that doesn’t have a QB coming out of a substance abuse program for $100, Alex.

WASHINGTON -3.5 Boise State

I have absolutely no feel for this game, nor should I considering it’s the first week and I’m not exactly well-versed on Husky and Bronco football. Still, I like Washington here at home in a rematch of last season’s Las Vegas Bowl. 

WISCONSIN -44.5 UMass

We all know Bucky is going to win this one, but this spread is suspect. Sure, if Bert was still in charge, Wisconsin would run up the score on the Minutemen, going for two because “that’s what the card told me to do.” But this is a new era with the milquetoast Gary Andersen at the helm. I can’t believe that the BADgers will be running on full cylinders what with a new staff and no longer having a bro in charge. Also, Schadenfreude.

ILLINOIS -31.5 Southern Illinois

Everyone please give a warm welcome to the Tim Beckman Axiom. This mathematically-verified theorem states that games involving noted Tim Brewster impersonator Tim Beckman should never be picked in favor of Beckman’s squad. The only thing I know about Southern Illinois is Jerry Kill once coached there and I once worked with an intern who went to school at SIU … or was it WIU? … NIU? I don’t know and it doesn’t matter. As long as Tim Beckman is providing the Illini faithful with another season of unintentional comedy (Google Tim Beckman tobacco), don’t bet on Illinois.

OHIO STATE -35 Buffalo

Year in and year out, I’m scared away by huge spreads in games between a national championship contender and a completely overmatched opponent. Not this week. Ohio State is carrying the tattered, burned, vomited-on Big Ten banner this season, and nothing is going to get in their way from representing the B1G in Pasadena. You thought I was going to say “representing the B1G in the final BCS title game,” didn’t you? Silly, you. Nevertheless, Urban Meyer’s system of witchcraft is firmly in place in Columbus, so I expect a rout of the Buffalo Buffaloes in week 1.

CINCINNATI -10.5 Purdue

DO YOU HEAR THAT SOUND? EEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRR-PLUNK! EEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRR-PLUNK! EEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRR-PLUNK! It's The Professor's Statistically-Proven Lock of the Week, brought to you by National American University! The number has already come down from 14 in favor of the Bearcats and it still seems too big for a #MACtion Conference USA Big East American Conference team vs. a B1G team. For the record, The Professor was 11-6 in locks last season, second only to the Corner Office Man.

MICHIGAN -31.5 Central Michigan

This pick goes out to 12-year-old cancer patient Grant Reed who named the brain tumor he is fighting “Michigan.” The Wolverines have been called a lot of things – with most having to do with a misplaced sense of arrogance for a program that hasn’t really won anything since 1997 – but being compared to a tumor is a new one. I credit young Grant for his preternatural ability to label Michigan what it really is – a cancer.

Penn State -8 Syracuse (East Rutherford, N.J.)

Stay far, far away from betting on this game as the linemakers are just throwing this number out there and hoping for the best. Neither team has named a starting QB, so your guess is as good as mine as to what teams performs better in week 1. I’m taking the Orange here for a couple reasons: 1) the number looks to be too big for a game with so many questions and 2) it’s always kind of funny to see how hard the Corner Office Man and Foreman’s Forecast take losses by their beloved Nits.

IOWA -3 Northern Illinois

Breathe it in. Let in linger in your nose. Enjoy the sweet undertones of Hawkeye tears. Now breathe it in deeply and let a wave of joy at the misfortune of others wash over you. This, my friends, is the feeling you’ll get on Saturday when Iowa opens its doomed 2013 season with a loss to a #MACtion team. It’s a feeling for which only the Germans could invent a word. It’s Schadenfreude and it’s a glorious thing for all those that laugh at the troubles of Kirk “Buyout the Size of Belgium’s GDP” Ferentz & Co.  Sorry, Mr. Money and the Host, but your beloved Hawkeyes won’t escape this game like they did last season. Jordan Lynch is a season better and the Husky offense is miles better than the joke of an offense that your squad trots out year in and year out. Sure, you have the Hebrew Hammer in Mark Weisman (I’m not sure he’s Jewish, but I’m running with it), but Northern Illinois is a battle-tested team that won’t be the least be intimidated by the Hawkeyes, nor should they. If it wasn’t already painfully obvious this is The Professor’s Schadenfreude Game of the Week, presented by Gasthof Zur Gemutlichkeit.

NEBRASKA -29 Wyoming

Nebraska is great at running the ball. Wyoming can’t stop the run. That’s all I’ve got.

Northwestern -5 CAL

I’ll drink the purple kool-aid that’s coming out of Evanston and buy that the Wildcats are a legit threat for Big Ten supremacy this season. Fitzgerald is a darn good coach that gets the most out of his players every week. Cal, meanwhile, is led by a guy named Sonny Dykes, a name that sounds like a retirement community in the Netherlands. While Northwestern always seems to play above expectations, the Golden Bears never seem to live up to theirs. This should be a fun game to watch with Cal’s wide-open offense and NU’s multi-faceted attack. Take the Cats.

Thus concludes The Professor's Smart Money Picks, brought to you by The City of Chanhassen.

2012 Pick 'em Corner Final Standings (including bowls)
The Cornerman – 169-141-3 (13-4) – 195 pts (54.47%)
The Professor – 169-141-3 (11-6) – 191 pts (54.47%)
Lockrem’s Locks – 167-140-3 (10-7-1) - 187 pts 54.35%
KCKCK – 166-144-3 (9-8) – 184 pts (53.51%)
Steve Stellar – 167-143-3 (8-9) – 183 pts (53.83%)
The Host – 160-150-3 (7-10) – 174 pts (51.59%)
Wick to Click – 149-161-3 (9-7) – 167 pts (48.08%)
Jeff Leach – 142-132-2 (4-6) – 150 pts (51.81%)
C-Noth – 136-140-2 (6-7) – 148 pts (49.28%)
Special G – 144-146-3 (4-12) – 152 pts (49.65%)
Strickly Cash – 128-144-2 (6-9) – 140 pts (46.40%)
The Veteran – 128-140-3 (4-11) – 136 pts (47.78%)
Mrs. Money –122-132-2 (6-6) – 134 pts (48.04%)
Money Traen – 95-103-2 (4-6) – 103 pts (45.71%)
LFK – 6-12 (no lock ) 6 pts (33.33%)

 

2011 Pick 'Em Corner Final Standings - Total Points (not including bowls)
1. C-Noth 156-100-4 (176, 10-3)
2. Wick to Click 148-128-4 (170, 11-2)
3. Strickly Cash 145-131-4 (165, 10-4)
4. Steve Stellar 144-132-4 (162, 9-5)
5. Special G 139-128-4 (155, 8-6)
6. The Professor 137-139-4 (153, 8-6)
7. The Host 133-143-4 (151, 9-5)
8. The Veteran 134-121-3 (146, 6-6)
9. The Cornerman 137-139-4 (145, 4-10)
10. KCKCKCK 123-112-4 (133, 5-6-1)
11. Miss Money 122-115-2 (132, 5-7)
12. Money Traen 112-86-3 (120, 4-6)
13. Lockrem’s Locks 55-56-1 (61, 3-1)
14. LFK 38-39-2 (42, 2-1)